Climate Risk and Climate Analogies in Hungarian Viticulture

نویسندگان

  • Károly Szenteleki
  • Levente Horváth
  • Márta Ladányi
چکیده

Though, according even to the most pessimistic forecasts, Hungary is expected to remain amongst the regions with good quality grapevine growing conditions in the future, the expected frequency and the impact of extreme climatic events are rather serious warning signs. In this study first some impactful climatic indicators are analyzed which are of high importance in grapevine production. Historic data are compared with regional climate model predictions of RegCM 3.1 with A1B scenario, concerning to the Central Hungarian grape growing regions. Then we introduce the method of spatial analogies with the help of which we find the regions which have a climate structure now that is similar to the one Hungary is predicted to have in the future.

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تاریخ انتشار 2012